Matthias Chang is a genius, an economic genius on top of that

This is probably the most gutsiest prediction on the Malaysia economy by the former aid to Tun Dr Mahathir, Matthias Chang.

Matthias Chang,18 November 2008

"Let´s put some money in our mouths. In the past I have challenged those who disagreed with me, that if they can prove me wrong, I would gladly pay them a RM5,000 cash reward. There were no takers. None could prove me wrong!

In the past few days, the mass media have gone out of the way to interview politicians and the Governor of Bank Negara to project a rosy picture that somehow our economy will overcome the severe pain and disruption from the on-going global financial tsunami.

I am willing to take on anyone from the Badawi regime and Bank Negara that by H1 of 2009, the KLCI will drop below 700. If I am wrong in my analysis, I will pay the first five individuals from the said Badawi regime and or Bank Negara the sum of RM5,000. These five individuals must within a week register at my website that they are willing to take me on in this challenge.

They have to provide their full name and address in accordance with their NRIC/MyKad and their designation.

If they lose to me, they must pay me the same amount!

Fellow citizens, don´t listen to the Badawi regime´s fairy tales. Prepare for the worst and the worst is yet to come. You owe it to your family. The best way to save our family and our country is to be prepared for all eventualities. We must tighten our belts, save for the stormy days that will surely come and not spend, spend as advocated by the Badawi regime´s ministers.

Use common sense. What do you tell your children as responsible parents when the family is going through hard times - spend, spend, spend or be thrifty, thrifty, thrifty?

Remember the flight safety rules when flying - when the oxygen mask falls from the overhead compartment, you are to wear the mask first before attending to your children. If you cannot save yourself, you are not in a position to save anyone. This is a fundamental principle of survival for everyone when a plane is about to crash!

Apply the same principle to economic woes and we will all be saved.

Here are my warnings for 2009:

By 2nd Half of next year, the automobile industry will go into a tailspin and suffer massive losses.

By 2nd Half of next year, credit card debts will soar, credit limits will be drastically reduced (worse than 1997/1998) and interest rates> on outstanding will increase sharply. It is already happening!

By 2nd Half of next year, shipping rates will drop drastically and this is also happening. Our ports and shipping companies will suffer.

By 2nd Half of next year, our housing market bubble will burst notwithstanding all the stimulus and pump-priming. Arab investors will not be coming. Dubai and Abu Dhabi is already in a financial / property gridlock! Why would they come here when they have to save their own asses?

By 2nd Half of next year, our exporters will be in tears, when Letters of Credit (L/Cs) will not be honoured and inventory stacks up at ports and in factory premises. Chinese exporters are already stipulating what LCs from which global banks will only be accepted.

By 2nd Half of next year, FELDA settlers will also be in tears. Having spent their windfall early this year (because of Badawi regime´s false optimism), their savings will be down and they will bleed.

By the 3rd Quarter of next year, corporate NPLs will shoot up! Relaxing mark-to-market rules will not help.

Malaysia will have a huge immigration problem when these hardworking people are thrown out of work and have to compete with the swelling ranks of Malaysian unemployed..

In the meantime capital outflows will continue.

Let´s see whether the statement that Malaysia has more than enough reserves (since according to Bank Negara, we need only have US$30 to US$40 billion reserves) will provide sufficient confidence to foreign investors to continue to invest in Malaysia ..

You can call the above observations - rubbish, pessimism, gloom and doom etc. but that won´t change reality.

Pause and think. In my previous warnings and alerts, I have stated that by the latest - the 1st quarter of 2009, things will get ugly and scary!

If I am not right, why did the leaders of the just concluded G-20 summit in Washington , in their so-called "Action Plan" stipulated that their policies, remedies etc. must be implemented by the end of the 1st Quarter 2009?

My articles were all written BEFORE THE SUMMIT and obviously I have no control over the leaders of G-20.

So ask yourself -"Why Oh Why Must the First Action Plan Be Implemented by the First Quarter of 2009?

This is only the first tentative steps by the G-20 leaders and there is no guarantee that the measures will work. The original Bretton Woods initiatives took almost two years to be formalised and put to work. There is no magic wand to be wielded by the leaders for instant cure. It will be a long hard grind. In the meantime, more shits will hit the ceiling fan. That is a given!